Louletano 1–1 Atlético Malveira: Result & Stats

Louletano

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Atlético Malveira

S. Lemes 40'

Unknown 45'

5/17/2026

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round · Promotion Round - 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Louletano35%

×Draw31%

Atlético Malveira35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LouletanoExpected goals in this matchAtlético Malveira

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

Louletano

1.00

Atlético Malveira

1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

1.33

creates per match

0.67

1.33

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Louletano

1.33

Atlético Malveira

0.67

allows per match

Louletano

1.33

Atlético Malveira

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Louletano+0.00on par

Atlético Malveira+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Louletano ↓

Atlético Malveira →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Louletano or draw

65%

Louletano or Atlético Malveira

69%

Draw or Atlético Malveira

65%

Winning margin

Louletano wins by 2+

13%

Atlético Malveira wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Louletano 1+ goals

63%

Louletano 2+ goals

26%

Louletano 3+ goals

8%

Atlético Malveira 1+ goals

63%

Atlético Malveira 2+ goals

26%

Atlético Malveira 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Louletano (draw refunded)

50%

Atlético Malveira (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Louletano at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Atlético Malveira away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Louletano attack 1.33 + Atlético Malveira defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.00

Atlético Malveira attack 0.67 + Louletano defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Louletano scores more

35%

level

31%

Atlético Malveira scores more

35%

Louletano at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Louletano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

S. Lemes

45'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff