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Louletano vs Aljustrelense — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H 2020

Louletano
Louletano
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Aljustrelense
Aljustrelense
12/19/2020Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group HCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H · Group H - 9Estádio Do Algarve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Louletano72%
×Draw19%
Aljustrelense9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Louletano
2.00
Aljustrelense
0.55

Louletano creates 264% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Louletano
1.60
Aljustrelense
0.40

allows per match

Louletano
0.70
Aljustrelense
2.40

finishing

Louletano+0.00on par
Aljustrelense+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Louletano ↓

Aljustrelense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Louletano or draw
91%
Louletano or Aljustrelense
81%
Draw or Aljustrelense
28%

Winning margin

Louletano wins by 2+
46%
Aljustrelense wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Louletano 1+ goals
86%
Louletano 2+ goals
59%
Louletano 3+ goals
32%
Aljustrelense 1+ goals
42%
Aljustrelense 2+ goals
11%
Aljustrelense 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Louletano (draw refunded)
89%
Aljustrelense (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Louletano at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

Aljustrelense away — creates 0.40, concedes 2.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Louletano attack 1.60 + Aljustrelense defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.00

Aljustrelense attack 0.40 + Louletano defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Louletano scores more
72%
level
19%
Aljustrelense scores more
9%

Louletano at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Louletano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H: Louletano 2–0 Aljustrelense

Louletano beat Aljustrelense 2-0 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H on December 19, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Do Algarve in São João da Venda.