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Louisville City vs Sporting KC II — USL Championship 2018

Louisville City
Louisville City
FT
8 – 3
HT: 3 – 3
Sporting KC II
Sporting KC II
10/12/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 59Louisville Slugger Field (Louisville, Kentucky)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Louisville City61%
×Draw20%
Sporting KC II19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Louisville City
2.16
Sporting KC II
1.11

Louisville City creates 95% more chances

Season form · 151 home / 66 away

creates per match

Louisville City
2.13
Sporting KC II
1.18

allows per match

Louisville City
1.05
Sporting KC II
2.18

finishing

Louisville City+0.00on par
Sporting KC II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Louisville City ↓

Sporting KC II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Louisville City or draw
81%
Louisville City or Sporting KC II
80%
Draw or Sporting KC II
39%

Winning margin

Louisville City wins by 2+
38%
Sporting KC II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Louisville City 1+ goals
88%
Louisville City 2+ goals
63%
Louisville City 3+ goals
36%
Sporting KC II 1+ goals
67%
Sporting KC II 2+ goals
30%
Sporting KC II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Louisville City (draw refunded)
77%
Sporting KC II (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Louisville City at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.05 · 151 matches

Sporting KC II away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.18 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Louisville City attack 2.13 + Sporting KC II defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.16

Sporting KC II attack 1.18 + Louisville City defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Louisville City scores more
61%
level
20%
Sporting KC II scores more
19%

Louisville City at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Louisville City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Louisville City 8–3 Sporting KC II

Louisville City beat Sporting KC II 8-3 in USL Championship on October 12, 2019.

The match was played at Louisville Slugger Field (Louisville, Kentucky).