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Louisville City vs San Diego Loyal — USL Championship 2018

Louisville City
Louisville City
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
San Diego Loyal
San Diego Loyal
9/16/2023USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 35Lynn Family Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Louisville City49%
×Draw23%
San Diego Loyal28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Louisville City
1.79
San Diego Loyal
1.29

Louisville City creates 39% more chances

Season form · 151 home / 59 away

creates per match

Louisville City
2.13
San Diego Loyal
1.54

allows per match

Louisville City
1.05
San Diego Loyal
1.46

finishing

Louisville City+0.00on par
San Diego Loyal+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Louisville City ↓

San Diego Loyal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Louisville City or draw
72%
Louisville City or San Diego Loyal
77%
Draw or San Diego Loyal
51%

Winning margin

Louisville City wins by 2+
27%
San Diego Loyal wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Louisville City 1+ goals
83%
Louisville City 2+ goals
53%
Louisville City 3+ goals
26%
San Diego Loyal 1+ goals
72%
San Diego Loyal 2+ goals
37%
San Diego Loyal 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Louisville City (draw refunded)
64%
San Diego Loyal (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Louisville City at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.05 · 151 matches

San Diego Loyal away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.46 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Louisville City attack 2.13 + San Diego Loyal defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.79

San Diego Loyal attack 1.54 + Louisville City defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Louisville City scores more
49%
level
23%
San Diego Loyal scores more
28%

Louisville City at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Louisville City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Louisville City 1–0 San Diego Loyal

Louisville City beat San Diego Loyal 1-0 in USL Championship on September 16, 2023.

The match was played at Lynn Family Stadium in Louisville, Kentucky.