Louisville City 4–0 Ottawa Fury: Result & Stats

Louisville City

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Ottawa Fury

9/22/2018

USL Championship · Round 50Louisville Slugger Field (Louisville, Kentucky)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Louisville City56%

×Draw22%

Ottawa Fury21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Louisville CityExpected goals in this matchOttawa Fury

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.08

Louisville City

1.89

Ottawa Fury

1.08

Louisville City creates 75% more chances

Season form · 151 home / 34 away

2.13

creates per match

1.12

1.05

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Louisville City

2.13

Ottawa Fury

1.12

allows per match

Louisville City

1.05

Ottawa Fury

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Louisville City+0.00on par

Ottawa Fury+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Louisville City ↓

Ottawa Fury →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Louisville City or draw

79%

Louisville City or Ottawa Fury

78%

Draw or Ottawa Fury

44%

Winning margin

Louisville City wins by 2+

32%

Ottawa Fury wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Louisville City 1+ goals

85%

Louisville City 2+ goals

56%

Louisville City 3+ goals

29%

Ottawa Fury 1+ goals

66%

Ottawa Fury 2+ goals

29%

Ottawa Fury 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Louisville City (draw refunded)

72%

Ottawa Fury (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Louisville City at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.05 · 151 matches

Ottawa Fury away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.65 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Louisville City attack 2.13 + Ottawa Fury defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.89

Ottawa Fury attack 1.12 + Louisville City defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Louisville City scores more

56%

level

22%

Ottawa Fury scores more

21%

Louisville City at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Louisville City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff