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Louisville City vs Indy Eleven — USL Championship 2026

Louisville City
Louisville City
Preview
23:00
Indy Eleven
Indy Eleven
10/17/2026USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Group StageLynn Family Stadium
Big match
55%
Louisville City
model favours
55%23%22%

Louisville City score first in only 20% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Louisville City55%
×Draw23%
Indy Eleven22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Louisville City
1.85
Indy Eleven
1.08

Louisville City creates 71% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 129 away

creates per match

Louisville City
2.13
Indy Eleven
1.11

allows per match

Louisville City
1.05
Indy Eleven
1.58

finishing

Louisville City+0.00on par
Indy Eleven+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Louisville City ↓

Indy Eleven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Louisville City or draw
78%
Louisville City or Indy Eleven
77%
Draw or Indy Eleven
45%

Winning margin

Louisville City wins by 2+
32%
Indy Eleven wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Louisville City 1+ goals
84%
Louisville City 2+ goals
55%
Louisville City 3+ goals
28%
Indy Eleven 1+ goals
66%
Indy Eleven 2+ goals
29%
Indy Eleven 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Louisville City (draw refunded)
72%
Indy Eleven (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Louisville City at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.05 · 150 matches

Indy Eleven away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.58 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Louisville City attack 2.13 + Indy Eleven defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.85

Indy Eleven attack 1.11 + Louisville City defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Louisville City scores more
55%
level
23%
Indy Eleven scores more
22%

Louisville City at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Louisville City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 65% of Indy Eleven’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Indy Eleven score first in only 28% of matches
  • Both teams score in 70% of Louisville City’s matches
  • 42% of Louisville City’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
City
LWWDD
Eleven
LWDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Louisville City host Indy Eleven

October 17, 2026: Louisville City take on Indy Eleven in USL Championship. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Louisville City host Indy Eleven at Lynn Family Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.