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Indy Eleven vs Louisville City — USL Championship 2026

Indy Eleven
Indy Eleven
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Louisville City
Louisville City
8/30/2025USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 26Michael A. Carroll Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

Indy Eleven36%
×Draw26%
Louisville City38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Indy Eleven
1.31
Louisville City
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 134 home / 128 away

creates per match

Indy Eleven
1.49
Louisville City
1.59

allows per match

Indy Eleven
1.12
Louisville City
1.13

finishing

Indy Eleven+0.00on par
Louisville City+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Indy Eleven ↓

Louisville City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Indy Eleven or draw
62%
Indy Eleven or Louisville City
74%
Draw or Louisville City
64%

Winning margin

Indy Eleven wins by 2+
16%
Louisville City wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Indy Eleven 1+ goals
73%
Indy Eleven 2+ goals
38%
Indy Eleven 3+ goals
14%
Louisville City 1+ goals
74%
Louisville City 2+ goals
39%
Louisville City 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Indy Eleven (draw refunded)
49%
Louisville City (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Indy Eleven at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.12 · 134 matches

Louisville City away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.13 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Indy Eleven attack 1.49 + Louisville City defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.31

Louisville City attack 1.59 + Indy Eleven defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Indy Eleven scores more
36%
level
26%
Louisville City scores more
38%

Louisville City at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Louisville City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Indy Eleven 1–3 Louisville City

Louisville City beat Indy Eleven 3-1 in USL Championship on August 30, 2025.

The match was played at Michael A. Carroll Stadium.