Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Louisville City vs Charleston Battery — USL Championship 2026

Louisville City
Louisville City
FT
4 – 1
HT: 4 – 0
Charleston Battery
Charleston Battery
8/10/2025USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 23Lynn Family Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 134+ matches

Louisville City54%
×Draw23%
Charleston Battery24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Louisville City
1.86
Charleston Battery
1.16

Louisville City creates 60% more chances

Season form · 151 home / 134 away

creates per match

Louisville City
2.13
Charleston Battery
1.26

allows per match

Louisville City
1.05
Charleston Battery
1.60

finishing

Louisville City+0.00on par
Charleston Battery+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Louisville City ↓

Charleston Battery →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Louisville City or draw
76%
Louisville City or Charleston Battery
77%
Draw or Charleston Battery
46%

Winning margin

Louisville City wins by 2+
30%
Charleston Battery wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Louisville City 1+ goals
84%
Louisville City 2+ goals
55%
Louisville City 3+ goals
28%
Charleston Battery 1+ goals
69%
Charleston Battery 2+ goals
32%
Charleston Battery 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Louisville City (draw refunded)
69%
Charleston Battery (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Louisville City at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.05 · 151 matches

Charleston Battery away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.60 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Louisville City attack 2.13 + Charleston Battery defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.86

Charleston Battery attack 1.26 + Louisville City defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Louisville City scores more
54%
level
23%
Charleston Battery scores more
24%

Louisville City at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Louisville City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Louisville City 4–1 Charleston Battery

Louisville City beat Charleston Battery 4-1 in USL Championship on August 10, 2025.

The match was played at Lynn Family Stadium.