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Louisiana Krewe vs Blue Goose — USL League Two 2018

Louisiana Krewe
Louisiana Krewe
FT
11 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Blue Goose
Blue Goose
5/7/2023USL League TwoUSL League Two · Southern Conference - 1Rajin' Cajun Soccer/Track & Field Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Louisiana Krewe78%
×Draw12%
Blue Goose10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Louisiana Krewe
3.51
Blue Goose
1.23

Louisiana Krewe creates 185% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 19 away

creates per match

Louisiana Krewe
2.19
Blue Goose
1.11

allows per match

Louisiana Krewe
1.35
Blue Goose
4.84

finishing

Louisiana Krewe+0.00on par
Blue Goose+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Louisiana Krewe ↓

Blue Goose →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Louisiana Krewe or draw
90%
Louisiana Krewe or Blue Goose
88%
Draw or Blue Goose
22%

Winning margin

Louisiana Krewe wins by 2+
60%
Blue Goose wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Louisiana Krewe 1+ goals
97%
Louisiana Krewe 2+ goals
86%
Louisiana Krewe 3+ goals
66%
Blue Goose 1+ goals
71%
Blue Goose 2+ goals
35%
Blue Goose 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Louisiana Krewe (draw refunded)
89%
Blue Goose (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Louisiana Krewe at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.35 · 31 matches

Blue Goose away — creates 1.11, concedes 4.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Louisiana Krewe attack 2.19 + Blue Goose defence 4.84 → ÷2 → 3.51

Blue Goose attack 1.11 + Louisiana Krewe defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Louisiana Krewe scores more
78%
level
12%
Blue Goose scores more
10%

Louisiana Krewe at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Louisiana Krewe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Louisiana Krewe 11 – 0 Blue Goose

Louisiana Krewe beat Blue Goose 11-0 in USL League Two on May 7, 2023.

The match was played at Rajin' Cajun Soccer/Track & Field Stadium in Los Angeles.