Louhans-Cuiseaux 2–2 Union Cosnoise: Result & Stats

Louhans-Cuiseaux

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Union Cosnoise

12/16/2023

Coupe de France · 8th RoundParc des Sports du Bram

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Louhans-Cuiseaux25%

×Draw23%

Union Cosnoise52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Louhans-CuiseauxExpected goals in this matchUnion Cosnoise

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.83

Louhans-Cuiseaux

1.21

Union Cosnoise

1.83

Union Cosnoise creates 51% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

0.67

creates per match

2.00

1.67

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Louhans-Cuiseaux

0.67

Union Cosnoise

2.00

allows per match

Louhans-Cuiseaux

1.67

Union Cosnoise

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Louhans-Cuiseaux+0.00on par

Union Cosnoise+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Louhans-Cuiseaux ↓

Union Cosnoise →

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2–04%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3–01%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Louhans-Cuiseaux or draw

48%

Louhans-Cuiseaux or Union Cosnoise

77%

Draw or Union Cosnoise

75%

Winning margin

Louhans-Cuiseaux wins by 2+

10%

Union Cosnoise wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Louhans-Cuiseaux 1+ goals

70%

Louhans-Cuiseaux 2+ goals

34%

Louhans-Cuiseaux 3+ goals

12%

Union Cosnoise 1+ goals

84%

Union Cosnoise 2+ goals

54%

Union Cosnoise 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Louhans-Cuiseaux (draw refunded)

33%

Union Cosnoise (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Louhans-Cuiseaux at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Union Cosnoise away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Louhans-Cuiseaux attack 0.67 + Union Cosnoise defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.21

Union Cosnoise attack 2.00 + Louhans-Cuiseaux defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Louhans-Cuiseaux scores more

25%

level

23%

Union Cosnoise scores more

52%

Union Cosnoise at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Union Cosnoise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coupe de France: Louhans-Cuiseaux 2–2 Union Cosnoise

Louhans-Cuiseaux and Union Cosnoise drew 2-2 in Coupe de France on December 16, 2023.

The match was played at Parc des Sports du Bram in Louhans.

Louhans-Cuiseaux vs Union Cosnoise — Coupe de France 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Coupe de France: Louhans-Cuiseaux 2–2 Union Cosnoise