Louhans-Cuiseaux 0–2 Rouen: Result & Stats

Louhans-Cuiseaux

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Rouen

1/7/2024

Coupe de France · Round of 64Parc des Sports du Bram

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Louhans-Cuiseaux17%

×Draw24%

Rouen59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Louhans-CuiseauxExpected goals in this matchRouen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.75

1.67

Louhans-Cuiseaux

0.75

Rouen

1.67

Rouen creates 123% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

0.67

creates per match

1.67

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Louhans-Cuiseaux

0.67

Rouen

1.67

allows per match

Louhans-Cuiseaux

1.67

Rouen

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Louhans-Cuiseaux+0.00on par

Rouen+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Louhans-Cuiseaux ↓

Rouen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–115%

0–212%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–14%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Louhans-Cuiseaux or draw

41%

Louhans-Cuiseaux or Rouen

76%

Draw or Rouen

83%

Winning margin

Louhans-Cuiseaux wins by 2+

5%

Rouen wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Louhans-Cuiseaux 1+ goals

53%

Louhans-Cuiseaux 2+ goals

17%

Louhans-Cuiseaux 3+ goals

4%

Rouen 1+ goals

81%

Rouen 2+ goals

50%

Rouen 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Louhans-Cuiseaux (draw refunded)

22%

Rouen (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Louhans-Cuiseaux at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Rouen away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Louhans-Cuiseaux attack 0.67 + Rouen defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.75

Rouen attack 1.67 + Louhans-Cuiseaux defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Louhans-Cuiseaux scores more

17%

level

24%

Rouen scores more

59%

Rouen at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Rouen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff