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Louhans-Cuiseaux vs Fleury 91 — Coupe de France 2018

Louhans-Cuiseaux
Louhans-Cuiseaux
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Fleury 91
Fleury 91
2/14/2021Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · 8th RoundParc des Sports du Bram

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Louhans-Cuiseaux10%
×Draw24%
Fleury 9165%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Louhans-Cuiseaux
0.46
Fleury 91
1.58

Fleury 91 creates 243% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Louhans-Cuiseaux
0.67
Fleury 91
1.50

allows per match

Louhans-Cuiseaux
1.67
Fleury 91
0.25

finishing

Louhans-Cuiseaux+0.00on par
Fleury 91+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Louhans-Cuiseaux ↓

Fleury 91 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–121%
0–216%
0–39%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (21%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Louhans-Cuiseaux or draw
35%
Louhans-Cuiseaux or Fleury 91
76%
Draw or Fleury 91
90%

Winning margin

Louhans-Cuiseaux wins by 2+
2%
Fleury 91 wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Louhans-Cuiseaux 1+ goals
37%
Louhans-Cuiseaux 2+ goals
8%
Louhans-Cuiseaux 3+ goals
1%
Fleury 91 1+ goals
79%
Fleury 91 2+ goals
47%
Fleury 91 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Louhans-Cuiseaux (draw refunded)
14%
Fleury 91 (draw refunded)
86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Louhans-Cuiseaux at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Fleury 91 away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Louhans-Cuiseaux attack 0.67 + Fleury 91 defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.46

Fleury 91 attack 1.50 + Louhans-Cuiseaux defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Louhans-Cuiseaux scores more
10%
level
24%
Fleury 91 scores more
65%

Fleury 91 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Fleury 91 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coupe de France: Louhans-Cuiseaux 0–1 Fleury 91

Fleury 91 beat Louhans-Cuiseaux 1-0 in Coupe de France on February 14, 2021.

The match was played at Parc des Sports du Bram in Louhans.