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Loughborough Lightning vs Sutton Coldfield Town W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Loughborough Lightning
Loughborough Lightning
FT
2 – 1
Sutton Coldfield Town W
Sutton Coldfield Town W
11/3/2024FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 1st RoundLoughborough University Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Loughborough Lightning61%
×Draw17%
Sutton Coldfield Town W22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Loughborough Lightning
3.04
Sutton Coldfield Town W
1.83

Loughborough Lightning creates 66% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Loughborough Lightning
2.75
Sutton Coldfield Town W
2.67

allows per match

Loughborough Lightning
1.00
Sutton Coldfield Town W
3.33

finishing

Loughborough Lightning+0.00on par
Sutton Coldfield Town W+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loughborough Lightning ↓

Sutton Coldfield Town W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
70%30%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

Loughborough Lightning or draw
78%
Loughborough Lightning or Sutton Coldfield Town W
83%
Draw or Sutton Coldfield Town W
39%

Winning margin

Loughborough Lightning wins by 2+
42%
Sutton Coldfield Town W wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Loughborough Lightning 1+ goals
95%
Loughborough Lightning 2+ goals
80%
Loughborough Lightning 3+ goals
57%
Sutton Coldfield Town W 1+ goals
84%
Sutton Coldfield Town W 2+ goals
54%
Sutton Coldfield Town W 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Loughborough Lightning (draw refunded)
74%
Sutton Coldfield Town W (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loughborough Lightning at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Sutton Coldfield Town W away — creates 2.67, concedes 3.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loughborough Lightning attack 2.75 + Sutton Coldfield Town W defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 3.04

Sutton Coldfield Town W attack 2.67 + Loughborough Lightning defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Loughborough Lightning scores more
61%
level
17%
Sutton Coldfield Town W scores more
22%

Loughborough Lightning at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Loughborough Lightning will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Loughborough Lightning vs Sutton Coldfield Town W

Loughborough Lightning beat Sutton Coldfield Town W 2-1 in FA Women's Cup on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Loughborough University Football Stadium in Loughborough, Leicestershire.