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Loudoun United vs Sporting KC II — USL Championship 2018

Loudoun United
Loudoun United
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Sporting KC II
Sporting KC II
9/25/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 54Segra Field (Leesburg)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Loudoun United47%
×Draw23%
Sporting KC II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Loudoun United
1.85
Sporting KC II
1.44

Loudoun United creates 28% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 66 away

creates per match

Loudoun United
1.52
Sporting KC II
1.18

allows per match

Loudoun United
1.70
Sporting KC II
2.18

finishing

Loudoun United+0.00on par
Sporting KC II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loudoun United ↓

Sporting KC II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Loudoun United or draw
70%
Loudoun United or Sporting KC II
77%
Draw or Sporting KC II
53%

Winning margin

Loudoun United wins by 2+
26%
Sporting KC II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Loudoun United 1+ goals
84%
Loudoun United 2+ goals
55%
Loudoun United 3+ goals
28%
Sporting KC II 1+ goals
76%
Sporting KC II 2+ goals
42%
Sporting KC II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Loudoun United (draw refunded)
61%
Sporting KC II (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loudoun United at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.70 · 111 matches

Sporting KC II away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.18 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loudoun United attack 1.52 + Sporting KC II defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.85

Sporting KC II attack 1.18 + Loudoun United defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Loudoun United scores more
47%
level
23%
Sporting KC II scores more
30%

Loudoun United at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Loudoun United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Loudoun United 4–1 Sporting KC II

Loudoun United beat Sporting KC II 4-1 in USL Championship on September 25, 2019.

The match was played at Segra Field (Leesburg).