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Loudoun United vs Saint Louis — USL Championship 2018

Loudoun United
Loudoun United
FT
4 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Saint Louis
Saint Louis
10/9/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 58Segra Field (Leesburg)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Loudoun United42%
×Draw25%
Saint Louis33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Loudoun United
1.52
Saint Louis
1.31

Loudoun United creates 16% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 45 away

creates per match

Loudoun United
1.52
Saint Louis
0.93

allows per match

Loudoun United
1.70
Saint Louis
1.51

finishing

Loudoun United+0.00on par
Saint Louis+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loudoun United ↓

Saint Louis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Loudoun United or draw
67%
Loudoun United or Saint Louis
75%
Draw or Saint Louis
58%

Winning margin

Loudoun United wins by 2+
21%
Saint Louis wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Loudoun United 1+ goals
78%
Loudoun United 2+ goals
45%
Loudoun United 3+ goals
20%
Saint Louis 1+ goals
73%
Saint Louis 2+ goals
38%
Saint Louis 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Loudoun United (draw refunded)
56%
Saint Louis (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loudoun United at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.70 · 111 matches

Saint Louis away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.51 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loudoun United attack 1.52 + Saint Louis defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.52

Saint Louis attack 0.93 + Loudoun United defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Loudoun United scores more
42%
level
25%
Saint Louis scores more
33%

Loudoun United at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Loudoun United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Loudoun United 4–3 Saint Louis

Loudoun United beat Saint Louis 4-3 in USL Championship on October 9, 2019.

The match was played at Segra Field (Leesburg).