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Loudoun United vs Philadelphia Union II — USL Championship 2018

Loudoun United
Loudoun United
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Philadelphia Union II
Philadelphia Union II
5/3/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 15Audi Field (Washington, District of Columbia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Loudoun United46%
×Draw23%
Philadelphia Union II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Loudoun United
1.85
Philadelphia Union II
1.50

Loudoun United creates 23% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 43 away

creates per match

Loudoun United
1.52
Philadelphia Union II
1.30

allows per match

Loudoun United
1.70
Philadelphia Union II
2.19

finishing

Loudoun United+0.00on par
Philadelphia Union II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loudoun United ↓

Philadelphia Union II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Loudoun United or draw
69%
Loudoun United or Philadelphia Union II
77%
Draw or Philadelphia Union II
54%

Winning margin

Loudoun United wins by 2+
25%
Philadelphia Union II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Loudoun United 1+ goals
84%
Loudoun United 2+ goals
55%
Loudoun United 3+ goals
28%
Philadelphia Union II 1+ goals
78%
Philadelphia Union II 2+ goals
44%
Philadelphia Union II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Loudoun United (draw refunded)
59%
Philadelphia Union II (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loudoun United at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.70 · 111 matches

Philadelphia Union II away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.19 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loudoun United attack 1.52 + Philadelphia Union II defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.85

Philadelphia Union II attack 1.30 + Loudoun United defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Loudoun United scores more
46%
level
23%
Philadelphia Union II scores more
31%

Loudoun United at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Loudoun United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Loudoun United 3 – 3 Philadelphia Union II

Loudoun United and Philadelphia Union II drew 3-3 in USL Championship on May 3, 2019.

The match was played at Audi Field (Washington, District of Columbia).