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Loudoun United vs Nashville — USL Championship 2018

Loudoun United
Loudoun United
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Nashville
Nashville
9/28/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 55Segra Field (Leesburg)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Loudoun United31%
×Draw25%
Nashville43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Loudoun United
1.23
Nashville
1.50

Nashville creates 22% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 34 away

creates per match

Loudoun United
1.52
Nashville
1.29

allows per match

Loudoun United
1.70
Nashville
0.94

finishing

Loudoun United+0.00on par
Nashville+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loudoun United ↓

Nashville →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Loudoun United or draw
57%
Loudoun United or Nashville
75%
Draw or Nashville
69%

Winning margin

Loudoun United wins by 2+
13%
Nashville wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Loudoun United 1+ goals
71%
Loudoun United 2+ goals
35%
Loudoun United 3+ goals
13%
Nashville 1+ goals
78%
Nashville 2+ goals
44%
Nashville 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Loudoun United (draw refunded)
42%
Nashville (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loudoun United at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.70 · 111 matches

Nashville away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.94 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loudoun United attack 1.52 + Nashville defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.23

Nashville attack 1.29 + Loudoun United defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Loudoun United scores more
31%
level
25%
Nashville scores more
43%

Nashville at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Nashville will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Loudoun United vs Nashville

Nashville beat Loudoun United 2-0 in USL Championship on September 28, 2019.

The match was played at Segra Field (Leesburg).