Loudoun United vs El Paso Locomotive — USL Championship 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 111+ matches
Loudoun United38%
El Paso Locomotive37%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 111 home / 115 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over54
- Under46
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes58
- No42
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Loudoun United ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Loudoun United at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.70 · 111 matches
El Paso Locomotive away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.36 · 115 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Loudoun United attack 1.52 + El Paso Locomotive defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.44
El Paso Locomotive attack 1.14 + Loudoun United defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.42
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 38%?"
Loudoun United at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 38% does not mean "Loudoun United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
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Colorado SpringsIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Loudoun United host El Paso Locomotive on Saturday, 30 April 2022 at 22:00. The match is part of the USL Championship 2018/2019 season.
USL Championship: Loudoun United 1–3 El Paso Locomotive
El Paso Locomotive beat Loudoun United 3-1 in USL Championship on April 30, 2022.
Goals: S. Guediri (28' pen), L. Solignac (68' pen, 90+5'), D. Luna (81').
The match was played at Segra Field in Leesburg, Virginia.