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Loto Popo vs USB — Championnat National 2019

Loto Popo
Loto Popo
FT
2 – 0
USB
USB
1/19/2022Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 15Stade Omnisports de Grand-Popo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Loto Popo53%
×Draw28%
USB19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Loto Popo
1.35
USB
0.67

Loto Popo creates 101% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 17 away

creates per match

Loto Popo
1.36
USB
0.71

allows per match

Loto Popo
0.63
USB
1.35

finishing

Loto Popo+0.00on par
USB+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loto Popo ↓

USB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Loto Popo or draw
81%
Loto Popo or USB
72%
Draw or USB
47%

Winning margin

Loto Popo wins by 2+
26%
USB wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Loto Popo 1+ goals
74%
Loto Popo 2+ goals
39%
Loto Popo 3+ goals
15%
USB 1+ goals
49%
USB 2+ goals
15%
USB 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Loto Popo (draw refunded)
74%
USB (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loto Popo at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.63 · 95 matches

USB away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loto Popo attack 1.36 + USB defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.35

USB attack 0.71 + Loto Popo defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Loto Popo scores more
53%
level
28%
USB scores more
19%

Loto Popo at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Loto Popo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: Loto Popo 2–0 USB

Loto Popo beat USB 2-0 in Championnat National on January 19, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Omnisports de Grand-Popo in Grand Popo.