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Loto Popo vs Réal Sport — Championnat National 2019

Loto Popo
Loto Popo
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Réal Sport
Réal Sport
12/20/2023Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 13Stade Omnisports de Grand-Popo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Loto Popo54%
×Draw30%
Réal Sport16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Loto Popo
1.26
Réal Sport
0.55

Loto Popo creates 129% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 82 away

creates per match

Loto Popo
1.36
Réal Sport
0.46

allows per match

Loto Popo
0.63
Réal Sport
1.16

finishing

Loto Popo+0.00on par
Réal Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loto Popo ↓

Réal Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–19%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Loto Popo or draw
84%
Loto Popo or Réal Sport
70%
Draw or Réal Sport
46%

Winning margin

Loto Popo wins by 2+
25%
Réal Sport wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Loto Popo 1+ goals
72%
Loto Popo 2+ goals
36%
Loto Popo 3+ goals
13%
Réal Sport 1+ goals
42%
Réal Sport 2+ goals
11%
Réal Sport 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Loto Popo (draw refunded)
77%
Réal Sport (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loto Popo at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.63 · 95 matches

Réal Sport away — creates 0.46, concedes 1.16 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loto Popo attack 1.36 + Réal Sport defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.26

Réal Sport attack 0.46 + Loto Popo defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Loto Popo scores more
54%
level
30%
Réal Sport scores more
16%

Loto Popo at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Loto Popo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Loto Popo vs Réal Sport

Loto Popo and Réal Sport drew 0-0 in Championnat National on December 20, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Omnisports de Grand-Popo in Grand Popo.