Loto Popo 1–1 Kraké: Result & Stats

Loto Popo

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Kraké

10/26/2025

Championnat National · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Loto Popo46%

×Draw29%

Kraké25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Loto PopoExpected goals in this matchKraké

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.86

Loto Popo

1.29

Kraké

0.86

Loto Popo creates 50% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 34 away

1.36

creates per match

1.09

0.63

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Loto Popo

1.36

Kraké

1.09

allows per match

Loto Popo

0.63

Kraké

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Loto Popo+0.00on par

Kraké+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loto Popo ↓

Kraké →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Loto Popo or draw

75%

Loto Popo or Kraké

71%

Draw or Kraké

54%

Winning margin

Loto Popo wins by 2+

21%

Kraké wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Loto Popo 1+ goals

72%

Loto Popo 2+ goals

37%

Loto Popo 3+ goals

14%

Kraké 1+ goals

58%

Kraké 2+ goals

21%

Kraké 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Loto Popo (draw refunded)

65%

Kraké (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loto Popo at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.63 · 95 matches

Kraké away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loto Popo attack 1.36 + Kraké defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.29

Kraké attack 1.09 + Loto Popo defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Loto Popo scores more

46%

level

29%

Kraké scores more

25%

Loto Popo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Loto Popo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff