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Loto Popo vs JSP — Championnat National 2019

Loto Popo
Loto Popo
FT
1 – 0
JSP
JSP
3/2/2024Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Championship Round - 5Stade Omnisports de Grand-Popo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Loto Popo52%
×Draw28%
JSP20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Loto Popo
1.37
JSP
0.72

Loto Popo creates 90% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 107 away

creates per match

Loto Popo
1.36
JSP
0.80

allows per match

Loto Popo
0.63
JSP
1.37

finishing

Loto Popo+0.00on par
JSP+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loto Popo ↓

JSP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Loto Popo or draw
80%
Loto Popo or JSP
72%
Draw or JSP
48%

Winning margin

Loto Popo wins by 2+
26%
JSP wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Loto Popo 1+ goals
75%
Loto Popo 2+ goals
40%
Loto Popo 3+ goals
16%
JSP 1+ goals
51%
JSP 2+ goals
16%
JSP 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Loto Popo (draw refunded)
73%
JSP (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loto Popo at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.63 · 95 matches

JSP away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.37 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loto Popo attack 1.36 + JSP defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.37

JSP attack 0.80 + Loto Popo defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Loto Popo scores more
52%
level
28%
JSP scores more
20%

Loto Popo at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Loto Popo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: Loto Popo 1–0 JSP

Loto Popo beat JSP 1-0 in Championnat National on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Omnisports de Grand-Popo in Grand Popo.