Loto Popo 2–0 Buffles: Result & Stats

Loto Popo

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Buffles

4/4/2026

Championnat National · Round 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Loto Popo41%

×Draw32%

Buffles27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Loto PopoExpected goals in this matchBuffles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

0.79

Loto Popo

1.05

Buffles

0.79

Loto Popo creates 33% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 115 away

1.36

creates per match

0.96

0.63

allows per match

0.74

creates per match

Loto Popo

1.36

Buffles

0.96

allows per match

Loto Popo

0.63

Buffles

0.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Loto Popo+0.00on par

Buffles+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loto Popo ↓

Buffles →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Loto Popo or draw

73%

Loto Popo or Buffles

68%

Draw or Buffles

59%

Winning margin

Loto Popo wins by 2+

16%

Buffles wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Loto Popo 1+ goals

65%

Loto Popo 2+ goals

28%

Loto Popo 3+ goals

9%

Buffles 1+ goals

55%

Buffles 2+ goals

19%

Buffles 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Loto Popo (draw refunded)

60%

Buffles (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loto Popo at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.63 · 95 matches

Buffles away — creates 0.96, concedes 0.74 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loto Popo attack 1.36 + Buffles defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.05

Buffles attack 0.96 + Loto Popo defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Loto Popo scores more

41%

level

32%

Buffles scores more

27%

Loto Popo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Loto Popo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff