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Loto Popo vs Bani Gansè — Championnat National 2019

Loto Popo
Loto Popo
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Bani Gansè
Bani Gansè
5/22/2024Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Championship Round - 18Stade Omnisports de Grand-Popo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Loto Popo49%
×Draw30%
Bani Gansè21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Loto Popo
1.22
Bani Gansè
0.69

Loto Popo creates 77% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 74 away

creates per match

Loto Popo
1.36
Bani Gansè
0.74

allows per match

Loto Popo
0.63
Bani Gansè
1.07

finishing

Loto Popo+0.00on par
Bani Gansè+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loto Popo ↓

Bani Gansè →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Loto Popo or draw
79%
Loto Popo or Bani Gansè
70%
Draw or Bani Gansè
51%

Winning margin

Loto Popo wins by 2+
22%
Bani Gansè wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Loto Popo 1+ goals
70%
Loto Popo 2+ goals
34%
Loto Popo 3+ goals
12%
Bani Gansè 1+ goals
50%
Bani Gansè 2+ goals
15%
Bani Gansè 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Loto Popo (draw refunded)
70%
Bani Gansè (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loto Popo at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.63 · 95 matches

Bani Gansè away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.07 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loto Popo attack 1.36 + Bani Gansè defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.22

Bani Gansè attack 0.74 + Loto Popo defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Loto Popo scores more
49%
level
30%
Bani Gansè scores more
21%

Loto Popo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Loto Popo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: Loto Popo 2–1 Bani Gansè

Loto Popo beat Bani Gansè 2-1 in Championnat National on May 22, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Omnisports de Grand-Popo in Grand Popo.