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Lothian Hutchison vs Wigtown & Bladnoch — FA Cup 2019

Lothian Hutchison
Lothian Hutchison
FT
5 – 0
Wigtown & Bladnoch
Wigtown & Bladnoch
8/17/2019FA CupFA Cup · 1st Preliminary RoundAlbyn Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Lothian Hutchison85%
×Draw9%
Wigtown & Bladnoch5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lothian Hutchison
3.50
Wigtown & Bladnoch
0.80

Lothian Hutchison creates 338% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Lothian Hutchison
2.00
Wigtown & Bladnoch
0.00

allows per match

Lothian Hutchison
1.60
Wigtown & Bladnoch
5.00

finishing

Lothian Hutchison+0.00on par
Wigtown & Bladnoch+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lothian Hutchison ↓

Wigtown & Bladnoch →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–14%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Lothian Hutchison or draw
95%
Lothian Hutchison or Wigtown & Bladnoch
91%
Draw or Wigtown & Bladnoch
15%

Winning margin

Lothian Hutchison wins by 2+
69%
Wigtown & Bladnoch wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Lothian Hutchison 1+ goals
97%
Lothian Hutchison 2+ goals
85%
Lothian Hutchison 3+ goals
66%
Wigtown & Bladnoch 1+ goals
55%
Wigtown & Bladnoch 2+ goals
19%
Wigtown & Bladnoch 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Lothian Hutchison (draw refunded)
94%
Wigtown & Bladnoch (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lothian Hutchison at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Wigtown & Bladnoch away — creates 0.00, concedes 5.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lothian Hutchison attack 2.00 + Wigtown & Bladnoch defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 3.50

Wigtown & Bladnoch attack 0.00 + Lothian Hutchison defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Lothian Hutchison scores more
85%
level
9%
Wigtown & Bladnoch scores more
5%

Lothian Hutchison at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Lothian Hutchison will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lothian Hutchison vs Wigtown & Bladnoch

Lothian Hutchison beat Wigtown & Bladnoch 5-0 in FA Cup on August 17, 2019.

The match was played at Albyn Park in Broxburn.