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Lothian Hutchison vs St. Cuthbert Wanderers — FA Cup 2019

Lothian Hutchison
Lothian Hutchison
AET
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
St. Cuthbert Wanderers
St. Cuthbert Wanderers
11/28/2020FA CupFA Cup · 1st Preliminary RoundSaughton Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Lothian Hutchison68%
×Draw14%
St. Cuthbert Wanderers18%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lothian Hutchison
4.00
St. Cuthbert Wanderers
2.13

Lothian Hutchison creates 88% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Lothian Hutchison
2.00
St. Cuthbert Wanderers
2.67

allows per match

Lothian Hutchison
1.60
St. Cuthbert Wanderers
6.00

finishing

Lothian Hutchison+0.00on par
St. Cuthbert Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

94%Over
  • Over94
  • Under6

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

86%Yes
  • Yes86
  • No14

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lothian Hutchison ↓

St. Cuthbert Wanderers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–22%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–16%
4–26%
4–34%
4–42%

Most likely 3–1 (6%) · grid covers 67% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
94%6%3.5
84%16%4.5
70%30%

Double chance

Lothian Hutchison or draw
82%
Lothian Hutchison or St. Cuthbert Wanderers
86%
Draw or St. Cuthbert Wanderers
32%

Winning margin

Lothian Hutchison wins by 2+
50%
St. Cuthbert Wanderers wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Lothian Hutchison 1+ goals
98%
Lothian Hutchison 2+ goals
90%
Lothian Hutchison 3+ goals
73%
St. Cuthbert Wanderers 1+ goals
88%
St. Cuthbert Wanderers 2+ goals
63%
St. Cuthbert Wanderers 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Lothian Hutchison (draw refunded)
79%
St. Cuthbert Wanderers (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
84%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lothian Hutchison at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

St. Cuthbert Wanderers away — creates 2.67, concedes 6.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lothian Hutchison attack 2.00 + St. Cuthbert Wanderers defence 6.00 → ÷2 → 4.00

St. Cuthbert Wanderers attack 2.67 + Lothian Hutchison defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Lothian Hutchison scores more
68%
level
14%
St. Cuthbert Wanderers scores more
18%

Lothian Hutchison at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Lothian Hutchison will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lothian Hutchison vs St. Cuthbert Wanderers

Lothian Hutchison beat St. Cuthbert Wanderers 2-1 in FA Cup on November 28, 2020.

The match was played at Saughton Sports Complex in Edingburgh.