Lothian Hutchison 1–2 Edinburgh City

Lothian Hutchison

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Edinburgh City

E. Douglas 82'

I. Murray 42'

D. Handling 35'

11/27/2021

FA Cup · 3rd RoundAinslie Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Lothian Hutchison60%

×Draw21%

Edinburgh City19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lothian HutchisonExpected goals in this matchEdinburgh City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.07

1.08

Lothian Hutchison

2.07

Edinburgh City

1.08

Lothian Hutchison creates 92% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

2.00

creates per match

0.57

1.60

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Lothian Hutchison

2.00

Edinburgh City

0.57

allows per match

Lothian Hutchison

1.60

Edinburgh City

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lothian Hutchison+0.00on par

Edinburgh City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lothian Hutchison ↓

Edinburgh City →

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Lothian Hutchison or draw

81%

Lothian Hutchison or Edinburgh City

79%

Draw or Edinburgh City

40%

Winning margin

Lothian Hutchison wins by 2+

37%

Edinburgh City wins by 2+

Team goals

Lothian Hutchison 1+ goals

87%

Lothian Hutchison 2+ goals

61%

Lothian Hutchison 3+ goals

34%

Edinburgh City 1+ goals

66%

Edinburgh City 2+ goals

29%

Edinburgh City 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Lothian Hutchison (draw refunded)

76%

Edinburgh City (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Lothian Hutchison at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Edinburgh City away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Lothian Hutchison attack 2.00 + Edinburgh City defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.07

Edinburgh City attack 0.57 + Lothian Hutchison defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 60%?"

Lothian Hutchison scores more

60%

level

21%

Edinburgh City scores more

19%

Lothian Hutchison at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Lothian Hutchison will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

J. Jarron

35'

D. Handling↳ J. Robertson

36'

C. Tapping

42'

I. Murray↳ A. Ferguson

45'

56'

61'

62'

69'

78'

A. Smith← D. Handling

79'

S. Cumming← N. Kemp

82'

E. Douglas↳ J. Viola

Lothian

Edinburgh

Schwake

Bronsky

McKay

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: R. Carr

61'▲J. Viola←▼N. Doherty

69'▲J. Murray←▼M. Renton

79'▲S. Cumming←▼N. Kemp

Lothian Hutchison substitutes

11Viola10Murray19Cumming13Barnes18Laver4Crawford15Foster12Crisholm16Signorini

Manager: G. Naysmith

56'▲L. Berry←▼C. Tapping

62'▲C. Kane←▼J. Jarron

78'▲A. Smith←▼D. Handling

Edinburgh City substitutes

12Berry16Kane7Smith19Shanley1Quate11Hilton4Farrell

Match Recap: Lothian Hutchison vs Edinburgh City

Edinburgh City beat Lothian Hutchison 2-1 in FA Cup on November 27, 2021.

Goals: D. Handling (35'), I. Murray (42'), E. Douglas (82').

The match was played at Ainslie Park Stadium in Edinburgh.

Lothian Hutchison vs Edinburgh City — FA Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Lothian Hutchison vs Edinburgh City