Lossiemouth 1–2 Formartine United: Result & Stats

Lossiemouth

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Formartine United

9/27/2025

FA Cup · 1st RoundGrant Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Lossiemouth12%

×Draw16%

Formartine United72%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LossiemouthExpected goals in this matchFormartine United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

2.56

Lossiemouth

0.94

Formartine United

2.56

Formartine United creates 172% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

0.50

creates per match

2.38

2.75

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Lossiemouth

0.50

Formartine United

2.38

allows per match

Lossiemouth

2.75

Formartine United

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lossiemouth+0.00on par

Formartine United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lossiemouth ↓

Formartine United →

0–03%

0–18%

0–210%

0–39%

0–45%

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2–01%

2–13%

2–24%

2–34%

2–42%

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Lossiemouth or draw

28%

Lossiemouth or Formartine United

84%

Draw or Formartine United

88%

Winning margin

Lossiemouth wins by 2+

Formartine United wins by 2+

50%

Team goals

Lossiemouth 1+ goals

61%

Lossiemouth 2+ goals

24%

Lossiemouth 3+ goals

Formartine United 1+ goals

92%

Formartine United 2+ goals

72%

Formartine United 3+ goals

46%

Draw no bet

Lossiemouth (draw refunded)

14%

Formartine United (draw refunded)

86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Lossiemouth at home — creates 0.50, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

Formartine United away — creates 2.38, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Lossiemouth attack 0.50 + Formartine United defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 0.94

Formartine United attack 2.38 + Lossiemouth defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 72%?"

Lossiemouth scores more

12%

level

16%

Formartine United scores more

72%

Formartine United at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Formartine United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Lossiemouth

Formartine

Manager: Steve Porter

Manager: Stuart Anderson