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Lossiemouth vs Buckie Thistle — FA Cup 2019

Lossiemouth
Lossiemouth
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Buckie Thistle
Buckie Thistle
9/17/2022FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundGrant Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Lossiemouth15%
×Draw19%
Buckie Thistle65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lossiemouth
0.96
Buckie Thistle
2.19

Buckie Thistle creates 128% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 14 away

creates per match

Lossiemouth
0.50
Buckie Thistle
1.64

allows per match

Lossiemouth
2.75
Buckie Thistle
1.43

finishing

Lossiemouth+0.00on par
Buckie Thistle+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lossiemouth ↓

Buckie Thistle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Lossiemouth or draw
35%
Lossiemouth or Buckie Thistle
81%
Draw or Buckie Thistle
85%

Winning margin

Lossiemouth wins by 2+
5%
Buckie Thistle wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Lossiemouth 1+ goals
62%
Lossiemouth 2+ goals
25%
Lossiemouth 3+ goals
7%
Buckie Thistle 1+ goals
89%
Buckie Thistle 2+ goals
64%
Buckie Thistle 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Lossiemouth (draw refunded)
19%
Buckie Thistle (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lossiemouth at home — creates 0.50, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

Buckie Thistle away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lossiemouth attack 0.50 + Buckie Thistle defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 0.96

Buckie Thistle attack 1.64 + Lossiemouth defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Lossiemouth scores more
15%
level
19%
Buckie Thistle scores more
65%

Buckie Thistle at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Buckie Thistle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Lossiemouth 1–2 Buckie Thistle

Buckie Thistle beat Lossiemouth 2-1 in FA Cup on September 17, 2022.

The match was played at Grant Park in Lossiemouth.