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Lossiemouth vs Brechin — League #730 2026

Lossiemouth
Lossiemouth
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Brechin
Brechin
11/22/2025League #730League #730

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Lossiemouth8%
×Draw17%
Brechin76%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lossiemouth
0.54
Brechin
2.21

Brechin creates 309% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

creates per match

Lossiemouth
0.40
Brechin
1.62

allows per match

Lossiemouth
2.80
Brechin
0.69

finishing

Lossiemouth+0.00on par
Brechin+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lossiemouth ↓

Brechin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–114%
0–216%
0–312%
0–46%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–22%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (16%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Lossiemouth or draw
24%
Lossiemouth or Brechin
83%
Draw or Brechin
92%

Winning margin

Lossiemouth wins by 2+
2%
Brechin wins by 2+
51%

Team goals

Lossiemouth 1+ goals
42%
Lossiemouth 2+ goals
10%
Lossiemouth 3+ goals
2%
Brechin 1+ goals
89%
Brechin 2+ goals
65%
Brechin 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Lossiemouth (draw refunded)
9%
Brechin (draw refunded)
91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lossiemouth at home — creates 0.40, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

Brechin away — creates 1.62, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lossiemouth attack 0.40 + Brechin defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.54

Brechin attack 1.62 + Lossiemouth defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Lossiemouth scores more
8%
level
17%
Brechin scores more
76%

Brechin at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Brechin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lossiemouth vs Brechin

Brechin beat Lossiemouth 2-0 in League #730 on November 22, 2025.