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Los Llanos vs UD San Fernando — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Los Llanos
Los Llanos
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
UD San Fernando
UD San Fernando
10/12/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 6Estadio Municipal Aceró

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Los Llanos32%
×Draw29%
UD San Fernando39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Los Llanos
1.02
UD San Fernando
1.16

UD San Fernando creates 14% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 76 away

creates per match

Los Llanos
1.06
UD San Fernando
1.26

allows per match

Los Llanos
1.06
UD San Fernando
0.97

finishing

Los Llanos+0.00on par
UD San Fernando+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Los Llanos ↓

UD San Fernando →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Los Llanos or draw
61%
Los Llanos or UD San Fernando
71%
Draw or UD San Fernando
68%

Winning margin

Los Llanos wins by 2+
12%
UD San Fernando wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Los Llanos 1+ goals
64%
Los Llanos 2+ goals
27%
Los Llanos 3+ goals
8%
UD San Fernando 1+ goals
69%
UD San Fernando 2+ goals
32%
UD San Fernando 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Los Llanos (draw refunded)
45%
UD San Fernando (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Los Llanos at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

UD San Fernando away — creates 1.26, concedes 0.97 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Los Llanos attack 1.06 + UD San Fernando defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.02

UD San Fernando attack 1.26 + Los Llanos defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Los Llanos scores more
32%
level
29%
UD San Fernando scores more
39%

UD San Fernando at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "UD San Fernando will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Los Llanos 0–0 UD San Fernando

Los Llanos and UD San Fernando drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on October 12, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Aceró in Los Llanos de Aridane.