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Los Llanos vs Santa Úrsula — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Los Llanos
Los Llanos
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Santa Úrsula
Santa Úrsula
11/23/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 12Estadio Municipal Aceró

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Los Llanos44%
×Draw28%
Santa Úrsula28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Los Llanos
1.29
Santa Úrsula
0.98

Los Llanos creates 32% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 92 away

creates per match

Los Llanos
1.06
Santa Úrsula
0.90

allows per match

Los Llanos
1.06
Santa Úrsula
1.52

finishing

Los Llanos+0.00on par
Santa Úrsula+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Los Llanos ↓

Santa Úrsula →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Los Llanos or draw
72%
Los Llanos or Santa Úrsula
72%
Draw or Santa Úrsula
56%

Winning margin

Los Llanos wins by 2+
20%
Santa Úrsula wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Los Llanos 1+ goals
72%
Los Llanos 2+ goals
37%
Los Llanos 3+ goals
14%
Santa Úrsula 1+ goals
62%
Santa Úrsula 2+ goals
26%
Santa Úrsula 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Los Llanos (draw refunded)
61%
Santa Úrsula (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Los Llanos at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

Santa Úrsula away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.52 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Los Llanos attack 1.06 + Santa Úrsula defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.29

Santa Úrsula attack 0.90 + Los Llanos defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Los Llanos scores more
44%
level
28%
Santa Úrsula scores more
28%

Los Llanos at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Los Llanos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Los Llanos vs Santa Úrsula

Santa Úrsula beat Los Llanos 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on November 23, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Aceró in Los Llanos de Aridane.