Los Llanos 2–1 San Miguel: Result & Stats

Los Llanos

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

San Miguel

2/1/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 20Estadio Municipal Aceró

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Los Llanos50%

×Draw28%

San Miguel22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Los LlanosExpected goals in this matchSan Miguel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.82

Los Llanos

1.39

San Miguel

0.82

Los Llanos creates 70% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

1.06

creates per match

0.59

1.06

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Los Llanos

1.06

San Miguel

0.59

allows per match

Los Llanos

1.06

San Miguel

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Los Llanos+0.00on par

San Miguel+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Los Llanos ↓

San Miguel →

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Los Llanos or draw

78%

Los Llanos or San Miguel

72%

Draw or San Miguel

50%

Winning margin

Los Llanos wins by 2+

25%

San Miguel wins by 2+

Team goals

Los Llanos 1+ goals

75%

Los Llanos 2+ goals

40%

Los Llanos 3+ goals

16%

San Miguel 1+ goals

56%

San Miguel 2+ goals

20%

San Miguel 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Los Llanos (draw refunded)

69%

San Miguel (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Los Llanos at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

San Miguel away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Los Llanos attack 1.06 + San Miguel defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.39

San Miguel attack 0.59 + Los Llanos defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Los Llanos scores more

50%

level

28%

San Miguel scores more

22%

Los Llanos at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Los Llanos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff