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Los Llanos vs Las Palmas II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Los Llanos
Los Llanos
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Las Palmas II
Las Palmas II
4/26/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 32Estadio Municipal Aceró

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Los Llanos29%
×Draw29%
Las Palmas II42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Los Llanos
0.99
Las Palmas II
1.25

Las Palmas II creates 26% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 49 away

creates per match

Los Llanos
1.06
Las Palmas II
1.45

allows per match

Los Llanos
1.06
Las Palmas II
0.92

finishing

Los Llanos+0.00on par
Las Palmas II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Los Llanos ↓

Las Palmas II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Los Llanos or draw
58%
Los Llanos or Las Palmas II
71%
Draw or Las Palmas II
71%

Winning margin

Los Llanos wins by 2+
11%
Las Palmas II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Los Llanos 1+ goals
63%
Los Llanos 2+ goals
26%
Los Llanos 3+ goals
8%
Las Palmas II 1+ goals
71%
Las Palmas II 2+ goals
36%
Las Palmas II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Los Llanos (draw refunded)
41%
Las Palmas II (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Los Llanos at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

Las Palmas II away — creates 1.45, concedes 0.92 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Los Llanos attack 1.06 + Las Palmas II defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.99

Las Palmas II attack 1.45 + Los Llanos defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Los Llanos scores more
29%
level
29%
Las Palmas II scores more
42%

Las Palmas II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Las Palmas II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Los Llanos 0 – 3 Las Palmas II

Las Palmas II beat Los Llanos 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on April 26, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Aceró in Los Llanos de Aridane.