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Los Llanos vs Arucas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Los Llanos
Los Llanos
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Arucas
Arucas
2/27/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 24Estadio Municipal Aceró

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Los Llanos41%
×Draw28%
Arucas31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Los Llanos
1.26
Arucas
1.06

Los Llanos creates 19% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 96 away

creates per match

Los Llanos
1.06
Arucas
1.06

allows per match

Los Llanos
1.06
Arucas
1.46

finishing

Los Llanos+0.00on par
Arucas+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Los Llanos ↓

Arucas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Los Llanos or draw
69%
Los Llanos or Arucas
72%
Draw or Arucas
59%

Winning margin

Los Llanos wins by 2+
18%
Arucas wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Los Llanos 1+ goals
72%
Los Llanos 2+ goals
36%
Los Llanos 3+ goals
13%
Arucas 1+ goals
65%
Arucas 2+ goals
29%
Arucas 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Los Llanos (draw refunded)
57%
Arucas (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Los Llanos at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

Arucas away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.46 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Los Llanos attack 1.06 + Arucas defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.26

Arucas attack 1.06 + Los Llanos defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Los Llanos scores more
41%
level
28%
Arucas scores more
31%

Los Llanos at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Los Llanos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Los Llanos 4–0 Arucas

Los Llanos beat Arucas 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on February 27, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Aceró in Los Llanos de Aridane.