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Los Garres vs UCAM Murcia II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Los Garres
Los Garres
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
UCAM Murcia II
UCAM Murcia II
11/10/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 12Estadio Las Tejeras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Los Garres31%
×Draw28%
UCAM Murcia II41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Los Garres
1.07
UCAM Murcia II
1.28

UCAM Murcia II creates 20% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 110 away

creates per match

Los Garres
1.00
UCAM Murcia II
1.33

allows per match

Los Garres
1.23
UCAM Murcia II
1.14

finishing

Los Garres+0.00on par
UCAM Murcia II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Los Garres ↓

UCAM Murcia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Los Garres or draw
59%
Los Garres or UCAM Murcia II
72%
Draw or UCAM Murcia II
69%

Winning margin

Los Garres wins by 2+
12%
UCAM Murcia II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Los Garres 1+ goals
66%
Los Garres 2+ goals
29%
Los Garres 3+ goals
9%
UCAM Murcia II 1+ goals
72%
UCAM Murcia II 2+ goals
37%
UCAM Murcia II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Los Garres (draw refunded)
43%
UCAM Murcia II (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Los Garres at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.23 · 44 matches

UCAM Murcia II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.14 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Los Garres attack 1.00 + UCAM Murcia II defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.07

UCAM Murcia II attack 1.33 + Los Garres defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Los Garres scores more
31%
level
28%
UCAM Murcia II scores more
41%

UCAM Murcia II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "UCAM Murcia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Los Garres vs UCAM Murcia II

UCAM Murcia II beat Los Garres 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on November 10, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Las Tejeras in Murcia.