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Los Garres vs Plus Ultra — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Los Garres
Los Garres
CANC
22:00
Plus Ultra
Plus Ultra
5/2/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 36Estadio Las Tejeras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Los Garres55%
×Draw23%
Plus Ultra21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Los Garres
1.78
Plus Ultra
1.01

Los Garres creates 76% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 63 away

creates per match

Los Garres
1.00
Plus Ultra
0.79

allows per match

Los Garres
1.23
Plus Ultra
2.56

finishing

Los Garres+0.00on par
Plus Ultra+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Los Garres ↓

Plus Ultra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Los Garres or draw
79%
Los Garres or Plus Ultra
77%
Draw or Plus Ultra
45%

Winning margin

Los Garres wins by 2+
31%
Plus Ultra wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Los Garres 1+ goals
83%
Los Garres 2+ goals
53%
Los Garres 3+ goals
26%
Plus Ultra 1+ goals
64%
Plus Ultra 2+ goals
27%
Plus Ultra 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Los Garres (draw refunded)
72%
Plus Ultra (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Los Garres at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.23 · 44 matches

Plus Ultra away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.56 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Los Garres attack 1.00 + Plus Ultra defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 1.78

Plus Ultra attack 0.79 + Los Garres defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Los Garres scores more
55%
level
23%
Plus Ultra scores more
21%

Los Garres at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Los Garres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Los Garres vs Plus Ultra — Match Preview

Los Garres face Plus Ultra on May 2, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Los Garres host Plus Ultra at Estadio Las Tejeras.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.