Los Garres 0–2 Lorca FC: Result & Stats

Los Garres

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Lorca FC

10/13/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 8Estadio Las Tejeras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Los Garres33%

×Draw30%

Lorca FC37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Los GarresExpected goals in this matchLorca FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.08

Los Garres

1.00

Lorca FC

1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 14 away

1.00

creates per match

0.93

1.23

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Los Garres

1.00

Lorca FC

0.93

allows per match

Los Garres

1.23

Lorca FC

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Los Garres+0.00on par

Lorca FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Los Garres ↓

Lorca FC →

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Los Garres or draw

63%

Los Garres or Lorca FC

70%

Draw or Lorca FC

67%

Winning margin

Los Garres wins by 2+

12%

Lorca FC wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Los Garres 1+ goals

63%

Los Garres 2+ goals

26%

Los Garres 3+ goals

Lorca FC 1+ goals

66%

Lorca FC 2+ goals

29%

Lorca FC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Los Garres (draw refunded)

47%

Lorca FC (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Los Garres at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.23 · 44 matches

Lorca FC away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Los Garres attack 1.00 + Lorca FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Lorca FC attack 0.93 + Los Garres defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Los Garres scores more

33%

level

30%

Lorca FC scores more

37%

Lorca FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Lorca FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff