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Los Garres vs Lorca Deportiva — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Los Garres
Los Garres
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Lorca Deportiva
Lorca Deportiva
11/24/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 14Estadio Las Tejeras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Los Garres28%
×Draw27%
Lorca Deportiva45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Los Garres
1.03
Lorca Deportiva
1.40

Lorca Deportiva creates 36% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 80 away

creates per match

Los Garres
1.00
Lorca Deportiva
1.57

allows per match

Los Garres
1.23
Lorca Deportiva
1.06

finishing

Los Garres+0.00on par
Lorca Deportiva+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Los Garres ↓

Lorca Deportiva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Los Garres or draw
55%
Los Garres or Lorca Deportiva
73%
Draw or Lorca Deportiva
72%

Winning margin

Los Garres wins by 2+
10%
Lorca Deportiva wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Los Garres 1+ goals
64%
Los Garres 2+ goals
28%
Los Garres 3+ goals
9%
Lorca Deportiva 1+ goals
75%
Lorca Deportiva 2+ goals
41%
Lorca Deportiva 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Los Garres (draw refunded)
38%
Lorca Deportiva (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Los Garres at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.23 · 44 matches

Lorca Deportiva away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.06 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Los Garres attack 1.00 + Lorca Deportiva defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.03

Lorca Deportiva attack 1.57 + Los Garres defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Los Garres scores more
28%
level
27%
Lorca Deportiva scores more
45%

Lorca Deportiva at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Lorca Deportiva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Los Garres 0 – 2 Lorca Deportiva

Lorca Deportiva beat Los Garres 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on November 24, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Las Tejeras in Murcia.