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Los Garres vs Deportiva Minera — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Los Garres
Los Garres
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Deportiva Minera
Deportiva Minera
10/24/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 9Estadio Las Tejeras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Los Garres39%
×Draw27%
Deportiva Minera33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Los Garres
1.28
Deportiva Minera
1.16

Los Garres creates 10% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 78 away

creates per match

Los Garres
1.00
Deportiva Minera
1.08

allows per match

Los Garres
1.23
Deportiva Minera
1.56

finishing

Los Garres+0.00on par
Deportiva Minera+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Los Garres ↓

Deportiva Minera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Los Garres or draw
67%
Los Garres or Deportiva Minera
73%
Draw or Deportiva Minera
61%

Winning margin

Los Garres wins by 2+
17%
Deportiva Minera wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Los Garres 1+ goals
72%
Los Garres 2+ goals
37%
Los Garres 3+ goals
14%
Deportiva Minera 1+ goals
69%
Deportiva Minera 2+ goals
32%
Deportiva Minera 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Los Garres (draw refunded)
54%
Deportiva Minera (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Los Garres at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.23 · 44 matches

Deportiva Minera away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.56 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Los Garres attack 1.00 + Deportiva Minera defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.28

Deportiva Minera attack 1.08 + Los Garres defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Los Garres scores more
39%
level
27%
Deportiva Minera scores more
33%

Los Garres at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Los Garres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Los Garres vs Deportiva Minera

Los Garres beat Deportiva Minera 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on October 24, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Las Tejeras in Murcia.