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Los Garres vs Bala Azul — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Los Garres
Los Garres
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Bala Azul
Bala Azul
3/27/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 29Estadio Las Tejeras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Los Garres38%
×Draw29%
Bala Azul33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Los Garres
1.16
Bala Azul
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 51 away

creates per match

Los Garres
1.00
Bala Azul
0.90

allows per match

Los Garres
1.23
Bala Azul
1.31

finishing

Los Garres+0.00on par
Bala Azul+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Los Garres ↓

Bala Azul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Los Garres or draw
67%
Los Garres or Bala Azul
71%
Draw or Bala Azul
62%

Winning margin

Los Garres wins by 2+
16%
Bala Azul wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Los Garres 1+ goals
69%
Los Garres 2+ goals
32%
Los Garres 3+ goals
11%
Bala Azul 1+ goals
65%
Bala Azul 2+ goals
29%
Bala Azul 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Los Garres (draw refunded)
54%
Bala Azul (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Los Garres at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.23 · 44 matches

Bala Azul away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.31 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Los Garres attack 1.00 + Bala Azul defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.16

Bala Azul attack 0.90 + Los Garres defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Los Garres scores more
38%
level
29%
Bala Azul scores more
33%

Los Garres at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Los Garres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Los Garres vs Bala Azul

Bala Azul beat Los Garres 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on March 27, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Las Tejeras in Murcia.