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Los Garres vs Atlético Pulpileño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Los Garres
Los Garres
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Pulpileño
Atlético Pulpileño
12/12/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 9Estadio Las Tejeras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Los Garres29%
×Draw29%
Atlético Pulpileño42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Los Garres
0.93
Atlético Pulpileño
1.19

Atlético Pulpileño creates 28% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 93 away

creates per match

Los Garres
1.00
Atlético Pulpileño
1.16

allows per match

Los Garres
1.23
Atlético Pulpileño
0.85

finishing

Los Garres+0.00on par
Atlético Pulpileño+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Los Garres ↓

Atlético Pulpileño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Los Garres or draw
58%
Los Garres or Atlético Pulpileño
71%
Draw or Atlético Pulpileño
71%

Winning margin

Los Garres wins by 2+
10%
Atlético Pulpileño wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Los Garres 1+ goals
61%
Los Garres 2+ goals
24%
Los Garres 3+ goals
7%
Atlético Pulpileño 1+ goals
70%
Atlético Pulpileño 2+ goals
33%
Atlético Pulpileño 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Los Garres (draw refunded)
41%
Atlético Pulpileño (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Los Garres at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.23 · 44 matches

Atlético Pulpileño away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.85 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Los Garres attack 1.00 + Atlético Pulpileño defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.93

Atlético Pulpileño attack 1.16 + Los Garres defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Los Garres scores more
29%
level
29%
Atlético Pulpileño scores more
42%

Atlético Pulpileño at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Atlético Pulpileño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Los Garres 0–1 Atlético Pulpileño

Atlético Pulpileño beat Los Garres 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on December 12, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Las Tejeras in Murcia.