Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Los Garres vs Archena Sport — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Los Garres
Los Garres
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Archena Sport
Archena Sport
10/3/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 5Estadio Las Tejeras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Los Garres36%
×Draw28%
Archena Sport36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Los Garres
1.15
Archena Sport
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 17 away

creates per match

Los Garres
1.00
Archena Sport
1.06

allows per match

Los Garres
1.23
Archena Sport
1.29

finishing

Los Garres+0.00on par
Archena Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Los Garres ↓

Archena Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Los Garres or draw
64%
Los Garres or Archena Sport
72%
Draw or Archena Sport
64%

Winning margin

Los Garres wins by 2+
15%
Archena Sport wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Los Garres 1+ goals
68%
Los Garres 2+ goals
32%
Los Garres 3+ goals
11%
Archena Sport 1+ goals
68%
Archena Sport 2+ goals
32%
Archena Sport 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Los Garres (draw refunded)
50%
Archena Sport (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Los Garres at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.23 · 44 matches

Archena Sport away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Los Garres attack 1.00 + Archena Sport defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Archena Sport attack 1.06 + Los Garres defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Los Garres scores more
36%
level
28%
Archena Sport scores more
36%

Los Garres at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Los Garres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Los Garres 1–1 Archena Sport

Los Garres and Archena Sport drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on October 3, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Las Tejeras in Murcia.