Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

LOS Caimanes vs Cesar Vallejo — Segunda División 2018

LOS Caimanes
LOS Caimanes
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Cesar Vallejo
Cesar Vallejo
4/15/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 2Estadio de la Juventud (Chongoyape)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

LOS Caimanes31%
×Draw27%
Cesar Vallejo42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LOS Caimanes
1.15
Cesar Vallejo
1.38

Cesar Vallejo creates 20% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 33 away

creates per match

LOS Caimanes
1.20
Cesar Vallejo
1.24

allows per match

LOS Caimanes
1.52
Cesar Vallejo
1.09

finishing

LOS Caimanes+0.00on par
Cesar Vallejo+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LOS Caimanes ↓

Cesar Vallejo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

LOS Caimanes or draw
58%
LOS Caimanes or Cesar Vallejo
73%
Draw or Cesar Vallejo
69%

Winning margin

LOS Caimanes wins by 2+
13%
Cesar Vallejo wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

LOS Caimanes 1+ goals
68%
LOS Caimanes 2+ goals
32%
LOS Caimanes 3+ goals
11%
Cesar Vallejo 1+ goals
75%
Cesar Vallejo 2+ goals
40%
Cesar Vallejo 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

LOS Caimanes (draw refunded)
43%
Cesar Vallejo (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LOS Caimanes at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.52 · 25 matches

Cesar Vallejo away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.09 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LOS Caimanes attack 1.20 + Cesar Vallejo defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.15

Cesar Vallejo attack 1.24 + LOS Caimanes defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

LOS Caimanes scores more
31%
level
27%
Cesar Vallejo scores more
42%

Cesar Vallejo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cesar Vallejo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: LOS Caimanes vs Cesar Vallejo

Cesar Vallejo beat LOS Caimanes 4-2 in Segunda División on April 15, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio de la Juventud (Chongoyape).