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Los Barrios vs San Roque Lepe — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Los Barrios
Los Barrios
CANC
00:00
San Roque Lepe
San Roque Lepe
4/19/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 34Estadio San Rafael

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Los Barrios37%
×Draw30%
San Roque Lepe33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Los Barrios
1.10
San Roque Lepe
1.03

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 61 away

creates per match

Los Barrios
0.93
San Roque Lepe
0.97

allows per match

Los Barrios
1.09
San Roque Lepe
1.28

finishing

Los Barrios+0.00on par
San Roque Lepe+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Los Barrios ↓

San Roque Lepe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Los Barrios or draw
67%
Los Barrios or San Roque Lepe
70%
Draw or San Roque Lepe
63%

Winning margin

Los Barrios wins by 2+
15%
San Roque Lepe wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Los Barrios 1+ goals
67%
Los Barrios 2+ goals
30%
Los Barrios 3+ goals
10%
San Roque Lepe 1+ goals
64%
San Roque Lepe 2+ goals
28%
San Roque Lepe 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Los Barrios (draw refunded)
53%
San Roque Lepe (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Los Barrios at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.09 · 44 matches

San Roque Lepe away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.28 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Los Barrios attack 0.93 + San Roque Lepe defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.10

San Roque Lepe attack 0.97 + Los Barrios defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Los Barrios scores more
37%
level
30%
San Roque Lepe scores more
33%

Los Barrios at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Los Barrios will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Los Barrios vs San Roque Lepe — Match Preview

Los Barrios face San Roque Lepe on April 19, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Los Barrios host San Roque Lepe at Estadio San Rafael.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.