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Los Barrios vs Rota — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Los Barrios
Los Barrios
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rota
Rota
4/14/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 33Estadio San Rafael

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Los Barrios49%
×Draw27%
Rota23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Los Barrios
1.41
Rota
0.88

Los Barrios creates 60% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 57 away

creates per match

Los Barrios
0.93
Rota
0.67

allows per match

Los Barrios
1.09
Rota
1.89

finishing

Los Barrios+0.00on par
Rota+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Los Barrios ↓

Rota →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Los Barrios or draw
77%
Los Barrios or Rota
73%
Draw or Rota
51%

Winning margin

Los Barrios wins by 2+
24%
Rota wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Los Barrios 1+ goals
76%
Los Barrios 2+ goals
41%
Los Barrios 3+ goals
17%
Rota 1+ goals
59%
Rota 2+ goals
22%
Rota 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Los Barrios (draw refunded)
68%
Rota (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Los Barrios at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.09 · 44 matches

Rota away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.89 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Los Barrios attack 0.93 + Rota defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.41

Rota attack 0.67 + Los Barrios defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Los Barrios scores more
49%
level
27%
Rota scores more
23%

Los Barrios at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Los Barrios will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Los Barrios vs Rota

Los Barrios and Rota drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on April 14, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio San Rafael in Los Barrios.