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Los Barrios vs Lebrijana — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Los Barrios
Los Barrios
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lebrijana
Lebrijana
10/18/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 1Estadio San Rafael

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Los Barrios48%
×Draw28%
Lebrijana24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Los Barrios
1.33
Lebrijana
0.84

Los Barrios creates 58% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 30 away

creates per match

Los Barrios
0.93
Lebrijana
0.60

allows per match

Los Barrios
1.09
Lebrijana
1.73

finishing

Los Barrios+0.00on par
Lebrijana+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Los Barrios ↓

Lebrijana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Los Barrios or draw
76%
Los Barrios or Lebrijana
72%
Draw or Lebrijana
52%

Winning margin

Los Barrios wins by 2+
23%
Lebrijana wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Los Barrios 1+ goals
74%
Los Barrios 2+ goals
38%
Los Barrios 3+ goals
15%
Lebrijana 1+ goals
57%
Lebrijana 2+ goals
21%
Lebrijana 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Los Barrios (draw refunded)
67%
Lebrijana (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Los Barrios at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.09 · 44 matches

Lebrijana away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.73 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Los Barrios attack 0.93 + Lebrijana defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.33

Lebrijana attack 0.60 + Los Barrios defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Los Barrios scores more
48%
level
28%
Lebrijana scores more
24%

Los Barrios at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Los Barrios will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Los Barrios vs Lebrijana

Los Barrios beat Lebrijana 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on October 18, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio San Rafael in Los Barrios.