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Los Barrios vs Coria CF — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Los Barrios
Los Barrios
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Coria CF
Coria CF
2/23/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 26Estadio San Rafael

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Los Barrios43%
×Draw28%
Coria CF29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Los Barrios
1.30
Coria CF
1.02

Los Barrios creates 27% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 95 away

creates per match

Los Barrios
0.93
Coria CF
0.95

allows per match

Los Barrios
1.09
Coria CF
1.67

finishing

Los Barrios+0.00on par
Coria CF+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Los Barrios ↓

Coria CF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Los Barrios or draw
71%
Los Barrios or Coria CF
72%
Draw or Coria CF
57%

Winning margin

Los Barrios wins by 2+
20%
Coria CF wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Los Barrios 1+ goals
73%
Los Barrios 2+ goals
37%
Los Barrios 3+ goals
14%
Coria CF 1+ goals
64%
Coria CF 2+ goals
27%
Coria CF 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Los Barrios (draw refunded)
60%
Coria CF (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Los Barrios at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.09 · 44 matches

Coria CF away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.67 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Los Barrios attack 0.93 + Coria CF defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.30

Coria CF attack 0.95 + Los Barrios defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Los Barrios scores more
43%
level
28%
Coria CF scores more
29%

Los Barrios at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Los Barrios will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Los Barrios 1–1 Coria CF

Los Barrios and Coria CF drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on February 23, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio San Rafael in Los Barrios.