Los Barrios 2–0 Ciudad de Lucena: Result & Stats

Los Barrios

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ciudad de Lucena

9/29/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 6Estadio San Rafael

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Los Barrios30%

×Draw31%

Ciudad de Lucena39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Los BarriosExpected goals in this matchCiudad de Lucena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.92

1.08

Los Barrios

0.92

Ciudad de Lucena

1.08

Ciudad de Lucena creates 17% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 110 away

0.93

creates per match

1.06

1.09

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Los Barrios

0.93

Ciudad de Lucena

1.06

allows per match

Los Barrios

1.09

Ciudad de Lucena

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Los Barrios+0.00on par

Ciudad de Lucena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Los Barrios ↓

Ciudad de Lucena →

0–014%

0–115%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Los Barrios or draw

61%

Los Barrios or Ciudad de Lucena

69%

Draw or Ciudad de Lucena

70%

Winning margin

Los Barrios wins by 2+

11%

Ciudad de Lucena wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Los Barrios 1+ goals

60%

Los Barrios 2+ goals

23%

Los Barrios 3+ goals

Ciudad de Lucena 1+ goals

66%

Ciudad de Lucena 2+ goals

29%

Ciudad de Lucena 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Los Barrios (draw refunded)

44%

Ciudad de Lucena (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Los Barrios at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.09 · 44 matches

Ciudad de Lucena away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.90 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Los Barrios attack 0.93 + Ciudad de Lucena defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.92

Ciudad de Lucena attack 1.06 + Los Barrios defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Los Barrios scores more

30%

level

31%

Ciudad de Lucena scores more

39%

Ciudad de Lucena at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ciudad de Lucena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Los Barrios vs Ciudad de Lucena

Los Barrios beat Ciudad de Lucena 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on September 29, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio San Rafael in Los Barrios.

Los Barrios vs Ciudad de Lucena — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Los Barrios vs Ciudad de Lucena