Los Barrios 1–1 Cartaya: Result & Stats

Los Barrios

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Cartaya

2/20/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 25Estadio San Rafael

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Los Barrios44%

×Draw28%

Cartaya28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Los BarriosExpected goals in this matchCartaya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.96

Los Barrios

1.29

Cartaya

0.96

Los Barrios creates 34% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 65 away

0.93

creates per match

0.82

1.09

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Los Barrios

0.93

Cartaya

0.82

allows per match

Los Barrios

1.09

Cartaya

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Los Barrios+0.00on par

Cartaya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Los Barrios ↓

Cartaya →

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Los Barrios or draw

72%

Los Barrios or Cartaya

72%

Draw or Cartaya

56%

Winning margin

Los Barrios wins by 2+

20%

Cartaya wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Los Barrios 1+ goals

72%

Los Barrios 2+ goals

37%

Los Barrios 3+ goals

14%

Cartaya 1+ goals

62%

Cartaya 2+ goals

25%

Cartaya 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Los Barrios (draw refunded)

61%

Cartaya (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Los Barrios at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.09 · 44 matches

Cartaya away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.65 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Los Barrios attack 0.93 + Cartaya defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.29

Cartaya attack 0.82 + Los Barrios defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Los Barrios scores more

44%

level

28%

Cartaya scores more

28%

Los Barrios at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Los Barrios will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff